The Demographic Growth Thesis
Three structural trends are reshaping consumption, capital formation, and demand across U.S. households. We identify and take positions in the equities disproportionately positioned for growth based on these trends.
Demographic Trends
We track three major demographic trends and base our investments on how they will shape demand over the next decade. Using the trends as a lens, we identify reliable and durable growth opportunities ahead of their peaks.
Neo-Boomers
Born between 1987 and 2009, this cohort outnumbers the Baby Boomers who preceded it. Thanks to their parents' higher educational attainment and two-income households, they have grown up with a standard of living earlier generations did not, and will likely be the best-educated, highest-spending generation yet. The market has priced their spending today. It has not priced the decade ahead, when this cohort reaches peak earning and spending at the same time.
Increasing Affluence
Born between 1946 and 1964, the baby boom differed from the generations before it in several ways. Educational achievement was far higher, which widened income opportunities, and two-income households became the norm. The peak population years of the boom are now moving through the age range associated with peak net worth, and net worth for this group is at an all-time high. Health care, wealth management, and income-generating assets face structural demand that will persist for two decades, regardless of short-term GDP or interest rate movements.
The Excluded Middle
The cohort between the Baby Boomers and Neo-Boomers is in its peak earning years, funding college tuition, elder care, and retirement at the same time. No previous generation has carried this many obligations at once, and the financial-services demand it creates is recurring and underpriced. This is also the age when people most often start a business, the stage where a successful venture or career step can raise net worth sharply.
Five stages from thesis to portfolio
Each stage applies a distinct discipline. Together they produce a portfolio whose holdings can be traced directly back to a specific demographic argument.
Demographic Mapping
Using live birth data, we identify and track age cohorts through their economic lifecycles.
Sector & Industry Selection
Based on our demographic mapping process, we identify the sectors and industries where we believe future demand will be both structural and profitable.
Security Selection
Within targeted sectors, we conduct fundamental analysis on individual companies to identify securities we expect to outperform within their sector.
Portfolio Construction
Selected positions are sized based on conviction, valuation, and contribution to portfolio-level risk, and no single position exceeds 10% of the portfolio at cost. Sector and position exposures are then monitored continuously against the demographic thesis.
Liquidity & Income Overlay
When cash is needed, box spreads raise it near the risk-free rate without selling core positions or realizing gains. Covered calls against long-held, high-conviction positions generate incremental income while the underlying thesis continues to play out.
Long-horizon investing rewards patient investors willing to hold through full market cycles.
We welcome questions about the strategy. Expect a response within one business day.