Why Demographic Growth
Most sources of growth are only truly visible in hindsight. Demographic shifts are visible well in advance.
Demographics is the most reliable form of growth investing.
While leadership, technology, and demographics are all potential avenues to growth, leadership and technology require investors to make judgement calls that even the most sophisticated among them get wrong with regularity — the most heavily backed companies fail outright, while unremarkable management teams deliver generational returns. Demographic changes, on the other hand, provide investors with growth opportunities that can be identified with a high degree of conviction in advance, but that are often overlooked because the payoff won't show up in the next few quarters.
Leadership
Hard to Pick- Good leaders are hard to identify in advance
- Poor leaders can appear strong, and strong leaders weak
- Not a reliable basis for investment
Low Conviction
Technology
Hard to Pick- Winning technologies are hard to identify in advance
- Apparent winners can fail outright, seemingly inferior tech can dominate
- Not a reliable basis for investment
Low Conviction
Demographics
Where We Invest- Predictable. Population shifts are visible decades ahead.
- Reliable. Demand follows them slowly and steadily.
- Not priced in. Markets discount the long horizon.
High Conviction
The shifts we invest in are already underway.
We welcome questions about how the thesis applies to your mandate. Expect a response within one business day.